4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 50

Cleveland Browns 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to LA 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.81 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -3.00 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP