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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 61

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 42-E.Evans punts 59 yards to CLE 2, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-56-C.Rozeboom.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.28 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 20, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP