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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 22

Cleveland Browns 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 7-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.98 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model