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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 26

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 8-L.Havrisik 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.00 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model