4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 51

Cleveland Browns 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.89 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model