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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 50

Denver Broncos 0 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to HOU 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.85 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 50, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP