4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 35

Denver Broncos 0 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 3-R.Wilson scrambles right guard to HOU 32 for 3 yards (48-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.53 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model