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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 81

Denver Broncos 3 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to HOU 33, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 25-D.King pushed ob at HOU 40 for 7 yards (39-D.Washington).

The Three Options

GO -3.01 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 38, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model