Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 82

Houston Texans 22 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 11-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to DEN 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-M.Mims to DEN 32 for 7 yards (35-J.Hansen; 4-T.Thomas). Penalty on DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 82, worth -4.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model