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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 40

Houston Texans 22 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 11-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.47 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -1.95 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP