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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 22

Denver Broncos 17 – Houston Texans 22

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 33-J.Williams right tackle to HOU 21 for 1 yard (25-D.King).

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.16 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model