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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 13

Denver Broncos 17 – Houston Texans 22

What Actually Happened

(:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles up the middle to HOU 8 for 5 yards (96-M.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +2.01 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 13, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.60 EP