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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 17

Houston Texans 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(6:00) (No Huddle) 7-C.Stroud up the middle to DEN 15 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO +3.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.06 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 17, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model