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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 55

Denver Broncos 0 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to HOU 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.39 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP