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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 13

Washington Commanders 7 – Miami Dolphins 38

What Actually Happened

(4:39) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell scrambles up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.40 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 13, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model