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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 77

Miami Dolphins 38 – Washington Commanders 15

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to WAS 30, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 41 for 11 yards (51-D.Long, 45-D.Riley).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model