4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 87

Washington Commanders 15 – Miami Dolphins 38

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to MIA 36, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 41 for 5 yards (59-J.Pryor, 32-T.Burgess).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.86 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 87, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 45, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP