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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Miami Dolphins
4th & 1 at the 14
Miami Dolphins 38 – Washington Commanders 15
What Actually Happened
(4:37) (Shotgun) 23-J.Wilson right tackle to WAS 8 for 6 yards (20-J.Martin).
The Three Options
GO
+3.20 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.96 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP
KICK
+1.93 EP
- 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT
-0.31 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
