Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 79

Washington Commanders 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

(8:04) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to MIA 28, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 30 for 2 yards (2-D.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.13 EP
70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 79, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model