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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 13

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 17-B.Aubrey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PENALTY on SEA-93-Ca.Young, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.52 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 13, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model