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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 2 at the 30
Dallas Cowboys 27 – Seattle Seahawks 28
What Actually Happened
(1:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb.
The Three Options
GO
+2.03 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.28 EP
- 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -1.20 EP
KICK
+1.37 EP
- 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
- 19% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT
+0.09 EP
- Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
