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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 19

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Seattle Seahawks 35

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 17-B.Aubrey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.48 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 19, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model