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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 46

Seattle Seahawks 35 – Dallas Cowboys 30

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 26-Z.Charbonnet left tackle to DAL 46 for no gain (90-D.Lawrence).

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.51 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model