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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 51

Seattle Seahawks 35 – Dallas Cowboys 38

What Actually Happened

(3:16) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.10 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 51, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model