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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 46

Carolina Panthers 3 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(1:11) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 17-D.Chark (1-A.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.64 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model