4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 45

Carolina Panthers 3 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep left.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.05 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.73 EP