Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 14 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 39-L.Hedley punts 42 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette. INJURY UPDATE: CAR 80-I.Thomas, ankle, QUESTIONABLE to return.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.19 EP
70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model