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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 11

Carolina Panthers 3 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 4-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model