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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 23

Carolina Panthers 6 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 4-E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.34 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model