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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 36

Carolina Panthers 6 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(8:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 3-R.Blackshear.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.65 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model