Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 76

Carolina Panthers 6 – New Orleans Saints 21

(5:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 82-T.Tremble.

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.43 EP
67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.01 EP