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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 6 – New Orleans Saints 28

What Actually Happened

(3:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to CAR 45 for 11 yards (28-L.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 24, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model