4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 39

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 39-L.Hedley punts 27 yards to CAR 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-46-A.Prentice.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.54 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP