Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 75

Houston Texans 0 – New York Jets 0

(11:51) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to NYJ 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 24 for no gain (37-D.Ross).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.82 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model