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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 43

New York Jets 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 5-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to HOU 2, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.16 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model