Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 58

New York Jets 0 – Houston Texans 0

(4:47) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to HOU 4, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-D.King MUFFS catch, touched at HOU 6, recovered by HOU-0-A.Amos at HOU 5.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.08 EP
74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 58, worth -3.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model