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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 94

Houston Texans 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to NYJ 43, Center-46-J.Weeks. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 46 for 3 yards (4-T.Thomas, 37-D.Ross).

The Three Options

GO -3.16 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.55 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 94, worth -5.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 52, worth -2.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model