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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 79

Houston Texans 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to NYJ 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 79, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model