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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 33

New York Jets 21 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 9-G.Zuerlein 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.36 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model