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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 36

New York Jets 24 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 9-G.Zuerlein 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.24 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model