4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 26

New York Jets 27 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 9-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +3.74 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 26, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model