4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 37

New York Jets 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 5-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.62 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP