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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 20 at the 78

Houston Texans 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 11-C.Johnston punts 65 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 27 for 14 yards (35-J.Hansen).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.94 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 78, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 35, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model