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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 45

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to CLE 5, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.15 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model