Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 77

Cleveland Browns 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

(4:14) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to JAX 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-P.Washington to JAX 44 for 26 yards (44-S.Takitaki).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 77, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model