Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

(1:20) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to JAX 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-P.Washington to JAX 23 for 11 yards (47-C.Hughlett; 44-S.Takitaki).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.33 EP
65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 63, worth -3.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model