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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 77

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(:54) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to CLE 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.86 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 77, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model