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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 77

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 9-L.Cooke punts 57 yards to CLE 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-J.Proche to CLE 31 for 11 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.59 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 77, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model