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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 44

Cleveland Browns 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to JAX 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.37 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model