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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to JAX 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 16 for 6 yards (22-G.Delpit).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.40 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model